Moore's Law

Moore's Law was first coined by Intel's co-foundercontained hard-disk memory with a large lead-acid
Gordon E. Moore. He first described this trend in abackup battery in the bottom in case of power failure.
paper written in 1965. The paper claimed the numberThey were so expensive that it took a large
of components in integrated circuits had doubled everyinvestment to prepare for pressing the CDs in volume.
year from the invention of the integrated circuit in 1958A pre-mastering studio would cost in the range of $1
until 1965. He went on to predict the trend wouldto $2 million. This job can now be done on a desktop
continue "for at least ten years". Most observers andor portable PC that costs under $2,000. All because of
technology experts expound that the doubling is takingMoore's Law; or should I say in gratitude and
only about 18 months!consequence of Moore's Law.
Much has been written about its trend since that time.The early CD players were so complex we had no
Much more has been written about how it has appliedway of testing and observing much of what went on
not only to the number of components insideinside the logic circuits. The interleaving of the data,
integrated circuits but to memory systems, processingapplying Reed Solomon coding, error detection
speeds, complexity of software executions and so on.correction and drop out protection was grotesquely
There are few students, scientists, engineers andcomplex. The designers of CD equipment had to leap
workers in technology industries who have notbeyond what the conventional computer analysts
become aware of its influence on product designwere doing at the time and find more powerful ways
cycles, competitive analysis, future cost of technologyof keeping the date good enough for music
and multitudes of other business aspects.reproduction when the surface of the disc became
The question often asked when will it end? Or, rather,corrupted.
will it end? And if so, when? Predictions have beenAlong came the same technology that benefited the
made that it cannot go on forever and that "next year"perfection of digital audio to the instruments that could
or in the "next decade" it will surely come to it end. Or,now sample and store data and compare the
some will say it may not end but will diminish graduallyprocessing events that took place in the CD recording,
until the doubling rate will take longer and longer times.mastering and replication equipments. While the earliest
Truth of the matter is that the doubling is currentlyCDs were fraught with drop outs due to errors in the
taking less time!recordings it is now very rare to experience such
Well, enough of that. One interested in this grandfailures.
assault on nature need only to search the InternetThese great improvements came in the form on digital
(Google or Bing or search engine of your choice) tooscilloscopes that allowed the circuit designers to
find a great deal of commentary on the subject.monitor and observe the digital channels, timing and
My purpose in bringing this to your attention is toprocessing throughout the complex circuits. Analog to
highlight how it has effected the design engineer indigital converters, digital to analog converters, jitter, low
producing hardware systems and equipment for thelevel linearity and noise control were greatly improved
markets. We contrast the days of vacuum tubedue to better understanding of the many processes
circuitry to systems of today that contain GigaBytesthat were part of the Compact Disc standards.
of data with built-in software that guides the device toNow, we have highly automated test systems at the
productivity levels unheard of just a decade ago.factory level, in the repair shops and among high end
My experience in consumer electronic products suchusers that keep the technology error free and strong.
as the Compact Disc are of interest. The first CDNext time you listen to a CD playing your favorite
players shown to the world pre-1982 were about themusic think of the million transistors buried inside the
size of a desk and contained multiple printed circuitone or two integrated circuits of the player all handling
boards powered by multiple power supplies. Earlytheir individual parts in reading the high speed data
demonstrations were made with a ton of discretecoming off the surface of the disc into a chain of
electronic circuits hidden under the table behind a blackdigital flip flops that rearrange the bits of information,
curtain so as not to reveal how complex the playbackstrip out the control and header formatting and finally
systems were. When integrated to the level ofput the digital bits in the right order to feed a digital to
technology available in 1982 the first players were theanalog converter that sends the final audio to the
size of a very large shoebox or hat box. Theyamplifier and speaker system. It really is a miracle of
contained over 100 integrated circuits of one kind orno small wonder.
another. As time went by the integrated circuitsWe could not have accomplished this digital feat
become more able to contain the functions on fewerwithout a similar revolution in the testing, measuring and
and fewer ICs. In fact, by 1990 there were ICs capablemonitoring systems used in the design and production
of doing the entire digital processing on one chip. Nowof the discs, the recording systems and the players. All
days you can purchase a simple CD player for underdone in just a few years time. How many years did it
$10!take to "perfect" the vinyl audio disc playback
When the CD was standardized it seemed impossiblesystems? From 1877 to 1977 was what it took! And
to be able to fit almost 1 GB of data on the little 12cmthe Compact Disc did not enter the market until 1982.
disc. At the time the main media that was being usedSo, the analog music recording which existed for over
in the PC was either an 8" floppy or the new 3.5"100 years was replaced with a digital audio system
diskettes capable of 1.2 MB. Now days we canthat is now only a little over 20 years of age and is
purchase a USB flash memory jump drive to plug intobeing threatened with complete obsolescence in the
the PC for under $10 which will hold 4 GB!near future by newer digital systems for downloading
The first CD pre-mastering work station used a highdirectly without the use of a packaged media at all!
power PC of the day and an 8 foot rack thatWhat's next?